If you’re new to the science and art of sports betting, and have stumbled upon this article, you’re off to a good start. Whether you’ve never bet before, or you’ve been betting casually and now want to crank it up a bit, learning some of the basics is a must. Inexperienced sports gamblers tend to do things that reduce their overall ROI, and learning from these mistakes can help keep you out of the red. Even the most experienced sports players can fall victim to these mistakes from time to time, so remember them, be disciplined, and you will increase your chances of success.
Having unrealistic expectations
Let’s start by talking about expectations. Sports betting makes a lot of money. That’s because most games don’t have a value, yet money is staked on all betting sites for every game. Because of this, it’s time for a reality check that the vast majority of people will lose more money than they make from sports betting. However, so many people go into this believing that they will be one to crack the books. This is no coincidence, though. Keep in mind that even the most experienced sports gamblers only want to win about 55% of their picks against the spread and feel really good about it. So if you plan to spend more time on sports betting, then keep your personal hype in check and you’ll have a clearer mind to make better decisions.
Betting too much
This comes with having those unrealistic expectations. If you try to use sports betting as a get-rich-quick scheme, you are overwhelmingly more likely to find yourself losing everything quickly. For this reason, do not, I repeat, DO NOT, put more money in your bankroll than you are both willing and financially comfortable losing. If you need money in your bankroll to pay your bills, this is a good indication that you should not gamble that money. Remember that sports betting is still a game, and if you risk more than you should and lose, you could really hurt yourself in the real world. Sports betting is a long-term investment, if you are diligent and disciplined, you can actually make some money from betting, but it’s not something that happens overnight.
Chasing losses
There’s an old adage that after a poor stretch a guy can “be owed” for something positive. This is a way of thinking based on superstition, as opposed to reality. The pursuit of losses is likely to happen to everyone at some point in their sports betting history, but avoiding it as much as possible will save you a lot of heartache. Everyone goes through bad times, I know I’ve had a few of my own, and it’s a scary place to be. You see the bankroll slowly shrinking and that can make you nervous. A lot of people think to themselves something like “well, yeah, I wouldn’t chase losses,” but once they get into it, they start creating these justifications for why their situation is different and that if they double their picks today, they’ll definitely get their money back. Of course, for a handful of people that day will indeed be the day they turn around, but for many others it will just end up being another failed day, but now they’ve lost money twice as fast. To reiterate, sports betting is a long-term investment in terms of profitability, you have to be willing to learn from losing streaks to get back to amazing winning streaks.
Neglect of bankroll management
This may very well be one of the most important things to avoid. Even the best of sports predictions can end up losing money because they have no relationship to how much they bet from one bet to the next. I won’t discuss the various bankroll management systems here, as there are several other great articles that cover this in more detail. Whichever system you choose, the important thing is that you remain disciplined. This discipline limits some of the variables that can affect your ROI and keeps you from depleting your bankroll and keeps you in the game.
Blaming luck
Of course, luck has its role in sports betting. It’s simply a part of sports in general; from time to time, something extremely unlikely will happen that can cause you to win or lose a bet. As such, part of our natural inclination is to account for negative outcomes. This is a dangerous game when your own hard cash is at stake. Blaming luck for losing types and taking full credit for winning types creates a feedback loop that prevents you from growing as a sports player. It’s important to really look at your losing bets
and figure out what went wrong and if there was something you missed when analyzing that particular match. Additionally, by keeping track of your wins and losses, you can go back and see if there are any particular negative trends that you can correct. Are you overestimating specific types of players, are you underestimating your defensive scheme, or are you forgetting to take injuries into account? There are an endless number of variables that go into analyzing a match, but it’s important to learn from your mistakes, so don’t blame everything on bad luck.
Betting on every match
Some people may get into the idea of betting on every game to reduce variance. They may believe that they are good enough to win 55% of the picks against the spread and thus make a lot of money. However, this is not the case. Value is king in sports betting, and if you bet on every game, you will overlook which plays will be valuable. In most games, the line is set so that there is no value on either side. Sure, you can have a really good season and make a profit, but realistically, it’s not real skill, but a whole lot of luck. The other side of this is that one bad week can absolutely destroy your bankroll, so instead of making 16 bets a week, find two or three that are the most valuable and stick with them. In the long run, this discipline will keep your bankroll intact.
Putting winners before value
The best sports players find the games that offer the most value and are not afraid to bet on a team they think is likely to lose. This is a difficult mindset to overcome. People like to side with the winning team, so the public tends to bet on the favorites against the spread. But this mistake occurs much more when you bet on the money line. Why would you bet on a team that you think will lose? Because it’s all about value. For example, you can pick a team that should win and bet the high odds of -250, but you need to win 71.43% of the time to break even. To reiterate, this is only a break-even point, so even if you hit those odds closer to 73% of the time, you’ll still earn little in terms of profit. On the other hand, you can bet on a team that you think will win only 40% of the time, but if your odds are +170, you’ll still make a decent profit even though you picked a team that you think will lose the game.
Short-sightedness
It’s easy to get caught up in the old saying “what have you done for me lately”. It is a dangerous thought process to stick with sports betting though, especially in soccer. Good teams have off weeks, so don’t be intimidated by a team that has an off week or two, especially if it has already proven to be a competitive team this year.
Not buying lines/courses
If you don’t browse at least a few sports bookmakers before placing a bet, you are literally leaving money at the table. While in general, most sports bookmakers have very similar odds and lines, they tend to vary. I’ve seen some bookmakers bet on favorites on the money line, but when that happens, you can also find additional value on the underdogs. So if you like the underdog at +120 at your main bookmaker, but can get +130 elsewhere, it’s time to place that bet elsewhere, otherwise you’re just throwing your money away. You may also come across scenarios where you can bet the Ravens +3.5 against the Steelers, but at another bookmaker you may be able to get a +4 line. If the Ravens lost 28-24, then you could get your bet back as opposed to losing it. Have at least a few sports sites at your disposal and place your bets where you can get the best odds or the best line.
BUI “Betting Under the Influence”
When I first set out on my own sports betting adventure, I read a lot of “do’s and don’ts of sports betting” articles just like this one. When I first saw it, I laughed to myself thinking “well, sure.” But I kept reading and the same advice kept coming up. In the end, just had to admit that this is a problem for many beginners. I mean, it makes sense why do you think casinos give free alcohol at the slot machines and card tables, they know you will make bad decisions with a little alcohol in you, and they will make a lot more money on those bad decisions than if you paid for those drinks. For this reason, do all your analysis, decision-making and betting sober. Take mind-altering substances after placing winning bets!
In conclusion
You can follow all these tips and still not be a profitable sports player. There are so many things that go into beating a sportsbook that you still have to be great at analysis and forecasting. For this reason, if you fall victim to any of these on a regular basis, you are guaranteed to lose sports betting, no matter how good your other skills are.
